Title: Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in India and effectiveness of self-quarantine: a phase-wise data driven analysis

Authors: Sahil Khan; Md. Wasim Khan; Narender Kumar; Ravins Dohare; Shweta Sankhwar

Addresses: Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Basic Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, Jamia Nagar, New Delhi, India ' Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Basic Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, Jamia Nagar, New Delhi, India ' Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Basic Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, Jamia Nagar, New Delhi, India ' Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Basic Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, Jamia Nagar, New Delhi, India ' Department of Computer Science, Maitreyi College (University of Delhi), Chanakyapuri, New Delhi, India

Abstract: The novel coronavirus disease referred to as COVID-19 was declared as pandemic by World Health Organisation (WHO). During this pandemic more than 988,172 lives were lost and 7,506,090 approximately active cases were found across the world by 25 September 2020. To predict the novel coronavirus transmission dynamics, the SQEIHDR mathematical model is proposed to predict the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in India. The model is an extension of basic SEIR mathematical model with additional compartments. These additional compartments include self-quarantine (Q), isolation (H) and deceased (D) which helps to understand COVID-19 outbreak in India in more realistic way and supposed to suppress the rise of transmission. The SQEIHDR model's simulation covers ten phases (Phases 0 to 9) with different COVID-19 preparedness and response plans. The simulation results show significant changes in curve of infected population based on variation in compartment Q, which reveals efficacy of imposed as well as proposed preparedness and response plan. Aftermath with different conditions of preparedness and response plan highlight the keys for outbreak downfall i.e., rate of self-quarantine (Q) which includes general awareness, social distancing and food availability.

Keywords: COVID-19; mathematical modelling; self-quarantine; transmission dynamics; preparedness; response plan.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2021.120467

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2021 Vol.66 No.3/4, pp.389 - 400

Received: 23 Jul 2020
Accepted: 19 Nov 2020
Published online: 21 Jan 2022 *

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