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Title: Global relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions across time: a multilevel approach

Authors: Luiz Paulo Fávero; Rafael De Freitas Souza; Patrícia Belfiore; Marcos Roberto Luppe; Marcos Severo

Addresses: School of Economics, Business and Accounting, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto,908 – FEA1 – Cidade Universitária, São Paulo – SP, 05508-900, Brazil ' School of Economics, Business and Accounting, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto,908 – FEA1 – Cidade Universitária, São Paulo – SP, 05508-900, Brazil ' Engineering, Modelling and Applied Social Sciences Centre, Federal University of ABC, Alameda da Universidade s/n. Bairro Anchieta, São Bernardo do Campo, SP, 09606-045, Brazil ' School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo, Rua Arlindo Bettio, 1000 – Vila Guaraciaba, São Paulo – SP, 03828-000, Brazil ' Federal University of Goiás, Avenida Esperança s/n – Câmpus Samambaia, Goiânia – GO, 74690-900, Brazil

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions worldwide. Based on an extensive review of several similar studies, we propose a novel quantitative methodological approach that captures contextual stances from 187 countries over the period 1800-2016. The proposed multilevel model simultaneously accommodates the interactions between fixed and random effects parameters regarding GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, it provides new evidences on the patterns of occurrence of the studied phenomenon between countries over time, respecting the heterogeneities of so distinct observations. More than capturing the positive and statistically significant relationship between economic development and carbon emissions per country, the model underscores the positive signals of the parameters that measure the influence of linear and cubic income over CO2 emissions, and the negative signal for the parameter of quadratic income, highlighting the validity of the traditional N-shaped curve for the analysed period. Furthermore, we found no differences in the estimation of the parameters between developed and developing countries throughout the period covered by the study, only among countries. Results are particularly important for researchers and policy makers involved with assessing the influence of economic growth on CO2 emissions.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; economic growth; climate issues; EKC hypothesis; multilevel modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2022.10043628

International Journal of Global Warming, 2022 Vol.26 No.1, pp.38 - 63

Received: 28 Nov 2020
Accepted: 08 Apr 2021

Published online: 06 Jan 2022 *

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