Title: An approach to the application of the Dempster-Shafer theory in the megacity community security risk assessment

Authors: Ke Yin; Haiyun Zhou; Jimin Chen; Chen Zhao

Addresses: Public Security Department, Nanjing Forest Police College, Xianlin University Town, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China ' Public Security Department, Nanjing Forest Police College, Xianlin University Town, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China ' Public Security Department, Nanjing Forest Police College, Xianlin University Town, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China ' Public Security Department, Nanjing Forest Police College, Xianlin University Town, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Abstract: Through the study of community security risks in a megacity by the application of the Dempster-Shafer theory, this paper develops an indicator system for the assessment of urban community security based on a combined array of both static and dynamic factors including natural disasters, man-made hazards, community administration and security support. A proper model was thereafter constructed in order to better solve the problems such as content inadequacy, insufficient indicators, model inaccuracy and other problems which are frequently brought forward in the former assessments made by others upon the static and dynamic factors, and then the model was applied in a case study of a megacity. The findings show that more effective improvements have been made by using the newly constructed model in the urban community security risk management.

Keywords: risk assessment; modern community security; megacities; Dempster-Shafer theory.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRS.2021.119643

International Journal of Reliability and Safety, 2021 Vol.15 No.1/2, pp.37 - 50

Received: 10 Jan 2021
Accepted: 16 Mar 2021
Published online: 13 Dec 2021 *

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