Title: Foresight by scenarios - a literature review

Authors: Jhon Wilder Zartha Sossa; Verónica Tatiana Álvarez Ríos; Camilo Andrés Grajales López; Juan Carlos Palacio Piedrahita

Addresses: Faculty of Agroindustrial Engineering, Pontifical Bolivarian University, Cq. 1 #70-01, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia ' Pontifical Bolivarian University, Cq. 1 #70-01, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia ' Pontifical Bolivarian University, Cq. 1 #70-01, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia ' Faculty of Agroindustrial Engineering, Pontifical Bolivarian University, Cq. 1 #70-01, Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia

Abstract: The methods used in foresight studies are analysed under the approach of recent scenarios and applications, where new methods are evidenced. Sixty-six documents were analysed through a search equation in Scopus with the help of the software Vantage Point, taking into account criteria such as keywords, countries, methods used and applications; making use of co-occurrence matrices and cluster analysis. Nineteen new methods, techniques and tools were found, amongst which nano-tendencies, data mining, machine learning, genetic algorithms, and serious games stand out. In the same way, the stages for the construction of scenarios were identified and it was found that they do not fit into a single school or foresight approach.

Keywords: foresight; scenarios; foresight methods; stage management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2021.118801

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2021 Vol.15 No.4, pp.230 - 249

Accepted: 01 Sep 2020
Published online: 08 Nov 2021 *

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