Title: Adjusting the logistic function to develop a more realistic product life cycle model

Authors: Seif El Din Abdel Rehim; Noha A. Mostafa; Tamer A. Mohamed

Addresses: Mechanical Engineering Department, The British University in Egypt, 11837, Cairo, Egypt ' Mechanical Engineering Department, The British University in Egypt, 11837, Cairo, Egypt; Industrial Engineering Department, Zagazig University, 44519, Sharkia, Egypt ' Mechanical Engineering Department, The British University in Egypt, 11837, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract: Product life cycle (PLC) is one of the essential issues that influence supply chains. A good understanding of this cycle enables better demand forecast and hence optimal planning of resources, investments, marketing and sales, it is also useful for customer availability forecasting. In literature, a logistic model is used to describe the first three stages of the PLC of any product: introduction, growth, and maturity. However, this paper discusses the derivation of a mathematical model that can capture the other stages of the PLC, declining, phase out and obsolescence and explains the uses of the derived model. Two numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed model and the improvement it provides over the traditional models. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the effect of changing the model parameters on the overall PLC shape. The results show that the proposed model is more reliable and realistic in capturing the PLC of any product and perform more accurate forecasting of future values.

Keywords: logistic model; product life cycle; PLC; obsolescence; inventory management; beta distribution.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPLM.2021.118039

International Journal of Product Lifecycle Management, 2021 Vol.13 No.3, pp.205 - 223

Received: 30 Oct 2020
Accepted: 14 Feb 2021

Published online: 01 Oct 2021 *

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