Title: A data analysis framework to predict the behaviour of macroeconomic indicators of countries

Authors: M.I. Nafeesathul Basariya; Murugesan Punniyamoorthy

Addresses: Department of Management Studies, National Institute of Technology, Thiruchirappalli-620015, Tamilnadu, India ' Department of Management Studies, National Institute of Technology, Thiruchirappalli-620015, Tamilnadu, India

Abstract: The impact of macroeconomic indicators on the economy of countries is difficult to establish correctly as the effects of these indicators are nonlinear and time variant. In this study, we have evolved new means to generate stationarity of such time series data. We have grouped the countries based on the mathematical model arrived during the stationarity test of economic indicators to analyse the pattern and magnitude of indicators that influences the economy and to suggest measures to follow the best economy in the group. The consumer price index and stock index data of countries like the USA, the UK, Brazil, India, Estonia and Latvia are considered for this purpose. The pattern of consumer price index and stock index of all the countries selected irrespective of their growth, was affected during the global financial crisis occurred during the year 2007 to 2009. The remedial measures to follow to reduce the gap are suggested.

Keywords: stationarity; macroeconomic indicators; consumer price index; stock index.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2021.117707

International Journal of Operational Research, 2021 Vol.42 No.1, pp.107 - 129

Received: 25 Oct 2018
Accepted: 11 May 2019
Published online: 21 Sep 2021 *

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