Title: Statistically downscaling climate change projection of precipitation and temperature over the semi-arid Yarmouk Basin, Jordan

Authors: Fayez A. Abdulla; Alham W. Al-Shurafat; Moayyad S. Shawaqfah

Addresses: Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Jordan University of Science and Technology (JUST), P.O. Box 3030, Irbid-22110, Jordan ' Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Jordan University of Science and Technology (JUST), P.O. Box 3030, Irbid-22110, Jordan ' Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Al al-Bayt University (AABU), P.O. Box 130040, Mafraq-25113, Jordan

Abstract: The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) skills have been addressed in downscaling the climate change over the Yarmouk Basin, which is a semi-arid trans-boundary basin between Syria and Jordan. The scenarios used to drive SDSM are GHGs representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using CanESM2 GCM. The projected scenarios under RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2011-2040 revealed an increase in the temperature by 0.9°C and decrease in the precipitation by about 9.5%, 12.7% and 12.9%, respectively. For the period 2041-2070, the results indicated an increase in temperature by 1.25°C, 1.54°C and 2.01°C, and decrease in precipitation by 16.8%, 18.6% and 18.5% under the three RCPs scenarios, respectively. Similarly, for the period 2071-2099, the results indicated an increase in temperature by 1.21°C, 1.79°C and 3.2°C and a decrease in precipitation by 19%, 25.5% and 31.6%, under the three RCPs scenarios, respectively.

Keywords: climate change; downscaling; statistical downscaling model; SDSM; semi-arid basin; Yarmouk Basin and uncertainty; Jordan.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.116709

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.24 No.3/4, pp.261 - 280

Received: 08 Nov 2019
Accepted: 11 Jan 2020

Published online: 21 Jul 2021 *

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