Title: Modelling and characterisation of the obsolescence process

Authors: A. Sánchez-Carralero; C. Armenta-Déu

Addresses: Grupo de Energías Renovables, Departamento de Estructura de la Materia, Física Térmica y Electrónica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain ' Grupo de Energías Renovables, Departamento de Estructura de la Materia, Física Térmica y Electrónica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain

Abstract: A simulation model is developed to analyse the obsolescence criteria leading to the replacement of a system. The process defines the global benefit as a combination of servicing benefits through the so called operative function and economic profit. Parameterisation of system performance is established based on specific characteristics of the technology used. The global benefit is simulated for the system operation time. A correction factor is introduced to determine the so called 'effective global benefit' which accounts for the profit above an operative threshold. The analysis of obsolescence uses statistical analysis based on Weibull distribution related to system reliability. Simulation shows the best options for optimum performance are intermediate time use of current system followed by short time use of new one, or vice versa. The 'effectiveness' in achieving the benefits provided by the new system reduces with the increase of benefits of new technology although global benefit is enhanced. The paper is also related to the reliability of the system through the mean time between failure (MTBF) parameter, defining a probability function that allows the user to know the probability of functioning for a system after some time of operation.

Keywords: obsolescence; economy balance; technology adoption.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPLM.2021.116208

International Journal of Product Lifecycle Management, 2021 Vol.13 No.2, pp.140 - 158

Received: 14 May 2020
Accepted: 05 Dec 2020

Published online: 07 Jul 2021 *

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