Title: Anti-poverty policies analysis for rural households in Iran: a system dynamics approach

Authors: Nasim Nahavandi; Seyed Mohamad Baghe Ajayebi

Addresses: Faculty of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Jalal AleAhmad, Nasr, P.O. Box 14115-111, Tehran, Iran ' Faculty of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Jalal AleAhmad, Nasr, P.O. Box 14115-111, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: Nowadays, poverty is one of the main problems in human societies. Poverty dynamics can help to predict the poverty trend in the future, and this can assist policymakers in making new policies to eradicate poverty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new system dynamics model for the poverty of rural households to analyse anti-poverty policies in Iran. The proposed system dynamics model is used for analysing the anti-poverty policies and predicting their effects on poor households. This model is validated by data from rural households supported by relief foundation (RF) in Iran. Five different policies have been considered for these households to find which policy has a sustainable effect on rural household income. The model results show supporting households in non-financial aid programs have a sustainable impact on their income and eradicate poverty faster than financial aid programs. Teaching the environmental aspects of sustainable development goals like soil management and providing fertiliser for them affect soil fertility and provide more crop for them.

Keywords: poverty trap; poverty dynamics; sustainable development; anti-poverty policy; system dynamics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIEI.2021.116089

International Journal of Intelligent Engineering Informatics, 2021 Vol.9 No.1, pp.88 - 118

Received: 15 May 2020
Accepted: 01 Nov 2020

Published online: 30 Jun 2021 *

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