Title: Estimating probable maximum precipitation for Bangladesh

Authors: Sheikh Hefzul Bari

Addresses: Department of Civil Engineering, Leading University, Sylhet-3112, Bangladesh

Abstract: In this paper, one-day probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is estimated for 29 meteorological stations of Bangladesh. A widely recognised statistical method, viz. Hershfield method, is used for PMP estimation. Afterward, the spatial prediction map of PMP is generated based on geostatistical analysis. It is found that Hershfield's frequency factor (Km) for estimating PMP varies from 2.03 to 8.03 while most are around 3 to 4. Results indicate that higher values of PMP are found in the eastern part of the country whereas lower at the western part. However, maximum PMP (811 mm) is found in Bhola which is located in the coastal region. The second highest is also found in the coastal region. Results from the geostatistical analysis shows that empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) performs slightly better in the spatial prediction map generation.

Keywords: probable maximum precipitation; PMP; Bangladesh; Hershfield method; empirical Bayesian kriging; EBK; geostatistical analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2021.115489

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2021 Vol.11 No.4, pp.415 - 421

Received: 11 Oct 2019
Accepted: 13 Dec 2019

Published online: 07 Jun 2021 *

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