Title: The relationship between impact and probability in supply chain risk management: a cargo theft example

Authors: Daniel Ekwall; Björn Lantz

Addresses: Faculty of Textiles, Engineering and Business, University of Borås, 50190 Borås, Sweden; Supply Chain Management and Social Responsibility, Hanken School of Economics, 00101 Helsinki, Finland ' Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden

Abstract: This study analyses the relationship between probability and impact for different combinations of incident and transport chain location type based on supply chain risk management theories. A deductive research method was used via employing data from the transport-related crime database incident information service (IIS). While the total risk may be the same for different probability-impact combinations, different risk management strategies are required. Regressing probability on impact gives an estimated effect of about −0.5, instead of the theoretically expected −1, indicating that an impact reducing strategy may reduce the total cargo theft risk more than a probability-focused strategy. An alternative risk ranking approach was suggested, which emphasises impact risk as more important than probability risk, implying that certain modi operandi are generating higher impact losses. The risk management strategy should therefore focus on reducing the probability for those incident categories.

Keywords: supply chain risk; concept of risk; transport chain location; cargo theft; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDSRM.2020.114311

International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management, 2020 Vol.9 No.4, pp.241 - 260

Accepted: 22 Jun 2020
Published online: 31 Mar 2021 *

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