Title: Picking the ICT technology winners - longitudinal analysis of 21st century technologies based on the Gartner hype cycle 2008-2017: trends, tendencies, and weak signals

Authors: Jari Kaivo-oja; Theresa Lauraéus; Mikkel Stein Knudsen

Addresses: Kazimieras Simonavicius University, LT-02189 Vilnius, Lithuania; Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland ' Kazimieras Simonavicius University, LT-02189 Vilnius, Lithuania; Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland; Aalto School of Economics, Aalto University, Finland ' Kazimieras Simonavicius University, LT-02189 Vilnius, Lithuania; Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland

Abstract: We analyse longitudinal data of the 2008-2017 Gartner hype cycles and key ICT technologies (151 technologies) in the world. In this study, we have calculated six different index analyses. Our analyses use the following index analyses: 1) ranking index analysis; 2) technology power index analysis; 3) better than other technology power index analysis; 4) triangulation index analysis; 5) weak signal analysis; 6) outlayer analysis. These six analyses are novel analyses. We ranked the information from hype cycles giving a rank for every observed technology. Information of calculations is public and open in the internet publications of the Gartner Ltd. We were able to see the top ten technologies: 1) augmented reality; 2) human augmentation; 3) quantum computing; 4) speech recognition; 5) mobile robots; 6) autonomous vehicles; 7) speech-to-speech translation; 8) mesh network sensor; 9) local-aware applications; 10) idea management.

Keywords: ICT technology innovations; Gartner's hype cycle; longitudinal index analysis; disruptive technologies; forecasting; technology trends; trends; weak signals; technology tendencies; trend analysis; ICT technology winners; 151 Gartner's hype cycle technologies.

DOI: 10.1504/IJWET.2020.113065

International Journal of Web Engineering and Technology, 2020 Vol.15 No.3, pp.216 - 264

Published online: 16 Feb 2021 *

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