Title: Using ratio-weighted sums to project data into future scenarios: the case study of heating systems

Authors: Miquel Banchs-Piqué; David J. Hutchinson; Victor M. Becerra; Mark R. Gaterell

Addresses: School of Civil Engineering and Surveying, University of Portsmouth, Portland Building, Portland Street, Portsmouth PO1 3AH, UK ' Faculty of Technology, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK ' School of Engineering, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK ' School of Civil Engineering and Surveying, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK

Abstract: Carefully planning the future of the building sector is key to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The largest contributor of the building sector to GHG emissions is the energy used for space and water heating. Therefore, information on its possible future evolutions can be very valuable. Future scenarios can be used to investigate the behaviour of existing data into the future. Here, electricity demand data are projected into four distinct futures of the household's use of electric heating systems. These projections offer, however, only partial information about the possible evolutions of the residential energy demand, as they account only for changes in the type of heating systems used. This information could, together with a range of other projections, be used to improve the planning of the future residential sector.

Keywords: future scenarios; foresight; data projection; ratio-weighted sum; household energy demand; heating systems; designing resilient cities; DRC.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDE.2020.113063

International Journal of Design Engineering, 2020 Vol.9 No.2, pp.131 - 140

Received: 18 Nov 2019
Accepted: 18 Sep 2020
Published online: 16 Feb 2021 *

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