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Title: The analysis of the most important climatic parameters affecting performance of crop variability in a changing climate

Authors: Safieh Javadinejad; Saeid Eslamian; Kaveh Ostad-Ali-Askari

Addresses: Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, 8145683111, Isfahan, Iran ' Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, 8145683111, Isfahan, Iran ' Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, 8145683111, Isfahan, Iran

Abstract: Projecting crop yield, under future climate plays a vital role in planning for supply and demand, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. The rice and potato are sensitive to variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, the present study was undertaken to assess the impact of climate change on these crop yields. Historical climate data from 1971-2005 were used as input to CROPWAT model to analyse the potential and actual evapotranspiration that affects crop yields. Furthermore, the generated local climatic data of future years (2006-2040), (2041-2075) and (2076-2100) under the severest scenario (RCP 8.5) from CMIP5 climate model are selected. Then the data were downscaled statistically and were inputted to the CROPWAT to determine the changes in ETo, Eta and crop yield from the baseline period for Zayandeh Rud river basin. The results indicate that all crops show increasing water requirement in the future period and enable us to generate the appropriate adaptation measures.

Keywords: climate change; evapotranspiration; CROPWAT; crop yield; Zayandeh Rud.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2021.112651

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2021 Vol.11 No.1, pp.1 - 25

Received: 17 Jan 2018
Accepted: 17 Mar 2018

Published online: 07 Jan 2021 *

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