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Title: The use of energies as a tool to stabilise climate and world population

Authors: Antonio Caselles; Maria T. Sanz

Addresses: Department of Applied Mathematics, IASCYS, University of Valencia, Spain ' Department of Didactics of Mathematics, University of Valencia, Spain; Facultad de Magisterio, Universidad de Valencia, Av. dels Tarongers, 4, 46022, València, Spain

Abstract: It is a fact that population and average global temperature on Earth grow fast. Literature shows that many studies have been performed about it. Nevertheless, forecasts are not good. Assuming that the key implied factors are the consumption of energy (from the different types of energy sources) and the birth rate, we suggest in this research, as a first step, to state a stochastic demographic model, including the necessary and adequate economic, environmental and wellbeing variables. This model will be able to optimise, by means of a genetic algorithm, the amount and proportion of the main source types energy consumption as well as the average birth rate in the world, in order to maintain the global present population and mean temperature. The input variables to be optimised (control variables) are the consumptions of: coal, oil, gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energies, as well as, forest area and the birth rate. The scenarios in which to perform the optimisation processes (non-controlled variables) are defined by the Human Development Index. The evolution of other variables such as, for instance, unemployment, carbon dioxide production, gross capital formation, water cycle, etc. is obtained as collateral information.

Keywords: global warming; energy consumption; stochastic demographic model; genetic algorithm; optimisation analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.112490

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.23 No.1, pp.91 - 109

Received: 11 Apr 2020
Accepted: 08 Jul 2020

Published online: 08 Jan 2021 *

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