Title: High-level stochastic project cost and duration planning methodology integrating earned duration, schedule and value, criticality, cruciality and downside risk metrics

Authors: David A. Wood

Addresses: DWA Energy Limited, 25 Badgers Oak, Bassingham, Lincoln LN5 9JP, UK

Abstract: A high-level methodology is described to integrate deterministic and stochastic calculations of project networks with parallel pathways of work items. It provides the systematic integration of earned value, earned schedule and earned duration metrics and derivative to-completion forecasts of project cost and duration with stochastically-derived quantitative measures of criticality, cruciality, uncertainty and downside risk measures at project, work item and budget levels. A project network consisting of up to about 50 high-level project work items (rather than hundreds of activities) is evaluated applying critical path analysis using a matrix template that derives the fraction of the project completed at regular intervals (e.g., 2% to 5%) along a baseline planned project schedule – the work-progress-breakdown diagram. This matrix is evaluated for each deterministic and stochastic case providing the key information to derive a spectrum established and novel earned value metrics, and to quantify uncertainty, down-side risk and criticality at the work-item, pathway and project levels.

Keywords: project cost duration simulation; stochastic earned value duration metrics; probabilistic project network critical path; duration performance index; DPI; project versus work-item criticality cruciality; quantified project risk uncertainty; project work-progress-breakdown diagrams.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2020.109754

International Journal of Operational Research, 2020 Vol.39 No.2, pp.160 - 204

Received: 22 Feb 2017
Accepted: 29 Dec 2017
Published online: 23 Sep 2020 *

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