Title: Trends in Dutch healthcare costs 1988-1994-2050

Authors: Johan J. Polder, Willem Jan Meerding, Luc Bonneux, Paul J. van der Maas, Marc A. Koopmanschap

Addresses: Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: During the last decades, healthcare costs in all Western countries continuously increased. An adequate healthcare policy must be based on realistic expectations about the development of healthcare costs in the years to come. In this paper, some projections of future healthcare costs in the Netherlands are made, using cost-of-illness data for 1994, population forecasts and quantitative insight in the cost development in the past. It is concluded that Dutch healthcare costs will increase in the next decades by an annual rate of 2.4%. This projected cost increase consists of increasing healthcare use due to demographic change (0.9-1.0%), developments in epidemiology and technology (1.1-1.2%) and of price and wage developments in healthcare which exceed general inflation by 0.3%.

Keywords: healthcare costs; cost of illness; projection; demography; epidemiology; technology; price and wage development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHTM.2000.001096

International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, 2000 Vol.2 No.5/6, pp.512-522

Published online: 30 Jun 2003 *

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