Authors: Liming Xie
Addresses: Department of Statistics, North Dakota State University, 1230 Administration Ave., Fargo, ND 58102, USA
Abstract: This paper is to analyse Michigan fatal crash (MFC) in 1974-2014 as time series data using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (0,0,1)-GARCH models to predict future values and trends. The author would like to use the heteroskedasticity from the object, such as the rates of incidence, is tested by the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) or generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). The best model of ARCH is to measure the volatility of the MFC so that the future values are predicted. Both ARIMA and ARCH or GARCH models are used to predict future values. The results suggest that GARCH modelling clinch the dynamic change of variance exactly. It suggests that the ARIMA-ARCH/GARCH hybrid modelling is the best method to predict the ahead values of covering the heteroskedastic original objects. Finally, using both ARCH/GARCH forecasting models to predict the future values and the trend of MFC. The results show downward trends.
Keywords: MFC; Michigan fatal crash; dynamic change; heteroscedasticity; ARIMA; autoregressive integrated moving average; ARCH; autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity; GARCH; generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity; forecast.
International Journal of Data Science, 2020 Vol.5 No.1, pp.26 - 40
Received: 10 May 2019
Accepted: 16 Feb 2020
Published online: 10 Sep 2020 *