Title: An investigation on the petrochemical industry development in Iran: a system dynamics approach

Authors: Vahid Hajiebrahimi Farashah; Seyed Hossein Hosseini; Zeinab Sazvar; Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi

Addresses: School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran ' Model-Based Management Systems Institute (SAMAM), Laleh Technology and Innovation Center, Keshavarz Boulevard, Tehran, Iran ' School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran ' School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: Petrochemical industry plays a significant role to achieve high value-added from oil and gas reserves, especially for countries with huge resources of fossil fuels. This study aims to investigate and model the development dynamics of the petrochemical industry in Iran using system dynamics (SD) methodology. Consequently, after describing the interrelationships among the main variables making the dynamics of domestic investment, a quantified model is built to simulate possible outcomes under different scenarios. According to the results, in 2025, the capacity of Iran's petrochemical productions will range from 73 to 78 million tons. Also, the value of products will range from 26 to 36 million dollars (USD) in 2025 that can be an interesting research area to investigate how the value of diversified petrochemical products can be increased. Finally, through a model-based scenario and policy analysis, some optimised policies are offered to enhance the petrochemical industry of Iran in the future.

Keywords: petrochemical industry; system dynamics; capacity expansion; scenario analysis; Iran.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2020.109312

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2020 Vol.16 No.5/6, pp.493 - 509

Received: 03 Jul 2018
Accepted: 08 May 2019

Published online: 30 Apr 2020 *

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