Title: Simulating future urban growth and land use/land cover change for a city

Authors: Badeea Shafeeq Abdi; Hakan Oguz

Addresses: Department of Petroleum Geosciences, Faculty of Science, Soran University, Soran, Iraq ' Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Forestry, Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University, Kahramanmaras, Turkey

Abstract: Climate change is the leading environmental problem that human being faces and urban growth exacerbates this problem due to higher population growth, private transportation demands, electricity usage, and demand for larger residential homes. Thus, estimating future growth of cities becomes more popular than before. The main objective of this study is to predict future urban growth and land use change dynamics of the city of Bursa so that it would provide a basis for better urban management. SLEUTH model was used in this study and calibrated with historical data derived from a time series of satellite images. The model was coupled with geographic information systems and remote sensing data to simulate urban growth of the city from 2011 to 2040. Two different scenarios were designed to predict the urban development from 2011 to 2040.

Keywords: SLEUTH model; climate change; GIS; remote sensing; calibration; urbanisation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.109257

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.21 No.4, pp.373 - 392

Received: 27 Apr 2019
Accepted: 16 Nov 2019

Published online: 02 Sep 2020 *

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