Title: Climate mitigation mathematical models consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement

Authors: Nizar Jaoua

Addresses: Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, College of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, P.O. Box 1664, Khobar 31952, KSA

Abstract: Smooth mathematical models are explicitly designed to describe time future climate trends consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Such models would serve as a basis for the implementation and control of appropriate climate mitigations. A nonlinear interpolation, together with a transition smoothing, is performed to model atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. A model for global warming is derived by a specific composition, made practical with the use of matrix representations of the involved functions, whose asymptotic behaviour will permit a long-term stabilisation below the climate target. As applications, the avoidance of further warming and the effectiveness of atmospheric CO2 mitigation are quantified with time. In addition, an infinite sequence of target-switching models is deduced by induction to improve the effectiveness or for more feasibility with regards to the most binding UN target 1.5°C. The graphical confrontation with the typical piecewise linear models and the UN simulation models RCP demonstrates a smooth pattern of moderate high climate mitigation, with the particular advantage of tolerating low-carbon emissions and keeping the levels always below the prescribed UN climate target.

Keywords: atmospheric carbon dioxide; CO2; avoidance; climate mitigation model; effectiveness; global average temperature; GAT; global warming; Paris Agreement; UN climate target; UNCT.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.108677

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.21 No.3, pp.287 - 298

Received: 12 Mar 2019
Accepted: 05 Feb 2020

Published online: 15 Jul 2020 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article