Title: Shadow economy and economic development: a panel cointegration and causality analysis

Authors: Yuriy Bilan; Inna Tiutiunyk; Sergij Lyeonov; Tatiana Vasylieva

Addresses: Centre of Applied Economic Research, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlin, UK ' Finance and Entrepreneurship Department, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine ' Economic Cybernetics Department, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine ' Oleg Balatskyi Academic and Research Institute of Finance, Economics and Management, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine

Abstract: The main objective of the research is to study the link between the indicators of GDP and shadow economy. In the article the forms of impact of the shadow economy have been analysed. Its main social, political and economic implications have been determined. The analysis results of the indicators of the average GDP growth rates in EU member states in 1960-2016, showed that the current level of economic growth in Ukraine is much lower compared to other countries. Based on the analysis of static indicators of the social and economic stability (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, maximum and minimum value), direct and feedback links between the levels of economy shadowing and GDP have been demonstrated. In this case, the results of Granger test confirm specific hypotheses and determine the vectors of their interaction at different time horizons.

Keywords: shadow economy; legalisation; corruption; GDP; macroeconomic stability; economic development; Granger test; Hausman test; Wald test; Brousha-Pagan test.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2020.107929

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2020 Vol.13 No.2, pp.173 - 193

Received: 13 May 2019
Accepted: 07 Sep 2019
Published online: 30 Jun 2020 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article