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Title: Renewable energy investment prospects in Turkey's power generation sector

Authors: Linet Ozdamar; Elifcan Yaşa; Nazlı Kavas; Görkem Vardar

Addresses: Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Boğaziçi University, İnönü Mah. Kayışdağı Cad. 26 Ağustos Yerleşimi, 34755, Ataşehir, İstanbul, Turkey ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Boğaziçi University, İnönü Mah. Kayışdağı Cad. 26 Ağustos Yerleşimi, 34755, Ataşehir, İstanbul, Turkey ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Boğaziçi University, İnönü Mah. Kayışdağı Cad. 26 Ağustos Yerleşimi, 34755, Ataşehir, İstanbul, Turkey ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Boğaziçi University, İnönü Mah. Kayışdağı Cad. 26 Ağustos Yerleşimi, 34755, Ataşehir, İstanbul, Turkey

Abstract: Turkey's power demand is mainly met by fossil fuels. Turkey has recently focused on hydro power development to reduce carbon emissions and fuel imports. However, hydropower efficiency will decrease due to desertification. Turkey's wind power potential is not so high on a national scale. Also, solar farm capacity is almost non-existent though Turkey has a good insolation level. Here, we develop a model that considers various renewable resource options to meet long term demand while maximising the net present value of the power generation sector's investment returns. The results of this model indicate that the sector can be transformed into a sustainable one over the next two decades by directing the majority of new investments to solar power while also using the full potential of wind and hydro power. Renewable resource share can go up to 65% by 2040 and become economical both for the public and private sector.

Keywords: power generation; renewable resources; long term power supply plan; government subsidies; subsidy budget; carbon tax; renewable energy targets; desertification; long term power consumption scenarios; private sector financial planning; net present value; investments; mathematical model; mixed integer programming; Turkey.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRET.2020.106513

International Journal of Renewable Energy Technology, 2020 Vol.11 No.1, pp.1 - 12

Received: 04 Oct 2018
Accepted: 29 Apr 2019

Published online: 01 Apr 2020 *

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