Article: Multi-generational technology management in a segmented environment Journal: International Journal of Product Development (IJPD) 2020 Vol.24 No.1 pp.1 - 29 Abstract: This paper examines the diffusion pattern of multi-generational technology innovation using segment-based analysis. The objective of the study is to comprehend the variation in the adoption behaviour of individuals across different geographical regions. The market of potential customers is geographically segmented into homogenous groups to epitomise the realistic technology diffusion in different markets. Three different S-shaped distribution functions, namely, Weibull, Logistic, and Gompertz are employed to understand the diffusion curves of multigenerational technology. The study critically examines two different scenarios depending on the condition that the substitution among two generations is possible within or across the market segments. The applicability of the proposed models is demonstrated using quantitative validation on the historical sales data set of IBM mainframe computers and Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) monitors. Additionally, the estimation ability and the forecasting performance of the present research are further compared with the well-established multi-generational diffusion model. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Multi-generational technology management in a segmented environment

Authors: Saurabh Panwar; P.K. Kapur; Nitin Sachdeva; Ompal Singh

Addresses: Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India ' Amity Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, Amity University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India ' Protiviti India Member Firm, Gurugram, Haryana, India ' Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India

Abstract: This paper examines the diffusion pattern of multi-generational technology innovation using segment-based analysis. The objective of the study is to comprehend the variation in the adoption behaviour of individuals across different geographical regions. The market of potential customers is geographically segmented into homogenous groups to epitomise the realistic technology diffusion in different markets. Three different S-shaped distribution functions, namely, Weibull, Logistic, and Gompertz are employed to understand the diffusion curves of multigenerational technology. The study critically examines two different scenarios depending on the condition that the substitution among two generations is possible within or across the market segments. The applicability of the proposed models is demonstrated using quantitative validation on the historical sales data set of IBM mainframe computers and Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) monitors. Additionally, the estimation ability and the forecasting performance of the present research are further compared with the well-established multi-generational diffusion model.

Keywords: diffusion models; heterogeneous hazard rate; leapfrogging; multi-generation; segmented market; segmented-level diffusion; S-shaped distribution functions; substitution effect; switching; technology innovation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPD.2020.106447

International Journal of Product Development, 2020 Vol.24 No.1, pp.1 - 29

Accepted: 14 May 2019
Published online: 07 Apr 2020 *

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Title: Multi-generational technology management in a segmented environment

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