Title: Probabilistic innovative trend analysis

Authors: Zekâi Şen

Addresses: Engineering and Natural Sciences Faculty, Istanbul Medipol University, Beykoz 34810, Istanbul, Turkey; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80234, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia

Abstract: This paper proposes new methodology for trend analysis, named as the probabilistic innovative trend analysis (PITA), whereby instead of statistical parameters probability distribution functions play the major role. The basis of the methodology is to compare the cumulative probability distribution functions (CDF) for each half of a given hydro-meteorological records. The methodology is without any restrictive assumption. The application of the PITA methodology is presented for Danube River discharge, New Jersey statewise precipitation and Istanbul minimum temperature records.

Keywords: climate change; climate variability; innovation; probability; trend; time series.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.105387

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.20 No.2, pp.93 - 105

Received: 25 May 2019
Accepted: 05 Oct 2019

Published online: 19 Feb 2020 *

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