Title: The economic uncertainty via coups on Fijian economic growth: modelling the effect over varying sample sizes and periods

Authors: Gyanendra Singh Sisodia; Alberto Ibanez; Murale Venugopalan

Addresses: College of Business Administration, Ajman University, United Arab Emirates; College of Business Administration, University of Science and Technology of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates ' College of Business Administration, Ajman University, United Arab Emirates; College of Business Administration, University of Science and Technology of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates ' Department of Management, Amrita Vishwavidyapeetham, AIMS Campus, Ponekkara, Kochi, Kerala, India

Abstract: This study aims to examine the impact of economic uncertainty via coups on the growth of Fiji's GDP. During coup and post-coup periods, uncertainty disrupts the economic and political situation of the country, ultimately affecting economic growth. Investment, merchandise imports, inflation and government net consumption expenditure are the variables under investigation. This study employs the time series model over five different periods, from 1970 to 2016, in order to estimate the effect of coups on economic growth. Merchandise imports and government spending exert the greatest effect on economic growth in Fiji along the five coup periods under study. Based on the findings of this study, we encourage policy makers in Fiji to rely on government consumption expenditures in order to promote economic growth during recession periods and foster it during expansion times. Imports, as long as they provide technology and knowledge transfer, might as well assist in fostering economic growth.

Keywords: coups; political instability; uncertainty; economic growth; trade; imports.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2019.105202

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2019 Vol.12 No.6, pp.578 - 605

Received: 19 May 2019
Accepted: 08 Sep 2019
Published online: 14 Feb 2020 *

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