Title: Indicative approaches in forecasting of industry indexes

Authors: Elena Mikhailovna Grigorieva; Dmitry Sergeevich Valkov

Addresses: Department of Finance and Credit, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia ' Department of Finance and Credit, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia

Abstract: To prepare for modernisation at the level of an individual enterprise or the entire industry as a whole, the information about the possible direction and speed of market development is needed, so it is necessary to carry out the forecasting procedure. This article is devoted to short-term forecasting of the possible direction of development of the industry in the Russian economy. The article is based on the use of such tools as groups of financial multipliers, which are formed at the intersection of the production and stock dimensions of the industry. The proposed financial multipliers are considered in the dynamics, and the received signals from the proposed indicators are combined and compared with the dynamics of the development of stock instruments (stock value or the value of the industry index) in the process of assessing the quality of the received forecast

Keywords: short-term forecasting; financial drivers; signal indicators; market value indicators; stock index.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2019.104631

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2019 Vol.12 No.4, pp.362 - 376

Received: 25 Oct 2018
Accepted: 04 Apr 2019
Published online: 24 Jan 2020 *

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