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Title: Multi-perspective influence mechanism analysis and multi-scenario prediction of China's carbon emissions

Authors: Tao Yi; Mohan Qiu; Hao Zheng; Jinpeng Liu

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2, Beinong Rd., Huilongguan Town, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2, Beinong Rd., Huilongguan Town, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2, Beinong Rd., Huilongguan Town, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China ' Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No. 2, Beinong Rd., Huilongguan Town, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China

Abstract: Due to the mandatory push to meet the carbon emission reduction commitments proposed in the Paris Agreement, an analysis of the peak carbon emission production times in China is required. This paper focuses on the peak production times of the total carbon emissions (TCEs) and carbon emissions intensity (CEI) in China. According to the development of China's carbon emissions and related targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the peak production times of TCE and CEI in different scenarios are predicted based on an influence mechanism analysis of China's carbon emissions from the perspectives of energy, economy, and society. Considering the development characteristics of China at this stage, this paper introduces several new indicators including the full-time equivalent of research and development (R&D) personnel and the investment in environmental pollution control. Based on the results of the study, several policy recommendations are put forward to fulfil China's carbon emission reduction commitments.

Keywords: carbon emissions; peaking time; influence mechanism; scenario prediction; Paris Agreement; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.104620

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.20 No.1, pp.61 - 79

Received: 02 May 2019
Accepted: 25 Jul 2019

Published online: 23 Jan 2020 *

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