Title: An eco-epidemiological model for Newcastle disease in central zone Tanzania

Authors: Alfred Hugo; Oluwole Daniel Makinde; Santosh Kumar

Addresses: Mathematics Department, University of Dodoma, Tanzania ' Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa ' Mathematics Department, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract: Newcastle disease is contagious bird disease which affects main domestic and wild avian species. A deterministic compartmental model for Newcastle disease (ND) is developed and analysed using ordinary differential equation theory. The uncertainties of model parameters were therefore examined using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations for the data of chicken death cases due to Newcastle disease from five districts in two regions in Tanzania. The parameter distribution was tested using MCMC convergence diagnostics. The graphical diagnostic test for MCMC used include Trace plots or time series plot, two-dimensional parameter plots and autocorrelation function plots. Hence, model parameters were successfully estimated for numerical simulations and the results of simulations were presented.

Keywords: eco-epidemiology; Newcastle disease; parameter estimation; Tanzania.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCSM.2019.10022401

International Journal of Computing Science and Mathematics, 2019 Vol.10 No.3, pp.215 - 235

Received: 24 Mar 2017
Accepted: 19 Jul 2017

Published online: 24 Jul 2019 *

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