Title: Microscopic modelling of international (re-)hospitalisation effects in the CEPHOS-LINK setting

Authors: Günther Zauner; Christoph Urach; Martin Bicher; Niki Popper; Florian Endel

Addresses: dwh Ltd., simulation services, Neustiftgasse 57-59, 1070 Vienna, Austria ' dwh Ltd., simulation services, Neustiftgasse 57-59, 1070 Vienna, Austria ' Institute for Analysis and Scientific Computing, TU Wien, WiednerHauptstrasse 8-10, 1040 Vienna, Austria ' DEXHELPP, Decision Support for Health Policy Planning, Neustiftgasse 57-59, 1070 Vienna, Austria ' IMEHPS.research, Forschungsinstitut für Sozialpsychiatrie Ltd., Glasergasse 24/23, 1090 Vienna, Austria

Abstract: Re-hospitalisation rates have become popular as a quality indicator among healthcare researchers, and politicians for cost containment and quality improvement. Within the EU-FP7 project CEPHOS-LINK an agent-based model (ABM) is integrated for Austria, Slovenia, and Veneto region of Italy for answering questions regarding long time planning effects for psychiatric (re)-hospitalisation under special constraints using national routine databases combined by data pooling processes. The simulation framework is based on a modular concept with the core module GEPOC (generic population concept), developed within the DEXHELPP consortia project in Austria, parameterised for regional forecast. Demographic changes, their simulated effects on (re)-hospitalisation, changes in distance to service and the effect of changes in the diabetes mellitus prevalence are calculated as forecast for Austria, Slovenia, and Veneto region. Results are gathered on a personal level, depicted and described on age/gender groups. Furthermore the (re)-hospitalisations in each country are mapped to costs, based on purchasing power parity.

Keywords: healthcare simulation; agent-based model; spatial dynamics; international claims data; model parameterisation; pathway model; parameter calibration.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2019.101012

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling, 2019 Vol.14 No.3, pp.261 - 278

Received: 01 Feb 2018
Accepted: 25 Sep 2018

Published online: 22 Jul 2019 *

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