Title: Assessment of climate change effects on precipitation and temperature in the Aras River Basin

Authors: Simin Ganjei; Jalal Shiri; Sepideh Karimi

Addresses: Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran ' Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran; Water Engineering and Science Research Institute (WESRI), University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran ' Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran; Water Engineering and Science Research Institute (WESRI), University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

Abstract: Climate change represents a major challenge for water resource management through its impacts on precipitation and temperature regimes. This study assesses the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature in the Aras River Basin using three CMIP6 GCM (MPI-ESM1-2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and MRI-ESM2-0). Statistical downscaling was performed using the LARS-WG model, and future projections were evaluated under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Based on its superior performance during the historical period, MPI-ESM1-2-LR was selected for detailed analysis. The results project increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation by 2080, with more pronounced changes under SSP5-8.5, particularly in the northwestern basin.

Keywords: Aras; climate change; CMIP6; LARS-WG; SSP.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2026.155864

International Journal of Global Warming, 2026 Vol.39 No.4, pp.371 - 387

Received: 05 Jun 2025
Accepted: 06 Feb 2026
Published online: 24 Aug 2026 *

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