Title: A simulation-based approach for arrival time estimation in last-mile logistics

Authors: Ana Pegado-Bardayo; Ana Viana; João Pedro Pedroso; Jesús Muñuzuri

Addresses: Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería, Universidad de Sevilla, Cm. de los Descubrimientos, s/n, 41092 Seville, Spain ' INESC TEC, ISEP, Polytechnic of Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal ' CMUP, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, R Campo Alegre, 4169–007 Porto, Portugal ' Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería, Universidad de Sevilla, Cm. de los Descubrimientos, s/n, 41092 Seville, Spain

Abstract: The last-mile segment represents the costliest phase within logistics, predominantly attributed to inadequate coordination between the company and customers during the delivery process. This often leads to undelivered packages due to customer absence, forcing subsequent delivery attempts which generate avoidable, extra costs to the company. In an effort to address this challenge, a novel delivery policy is introduced, seeking to enhance this coordination by offering customers precise yet dependable delivery time windows. These time windows are obtained by simulating the courier's route through pre-defined routes, considering altering factors such as detours or rush hours. The outcomes of these simulations result in histograms illustrating arrival times at each node, facilitating the selection of time windows that strike an optimal balance between width and prediction confidence.

Keywords: last-mile delivery; time-windows; simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2026.155743

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2026 Vol.23 No.1, pp.55 - 76

Received: 01 Apr 2025
Accepted: 09 Apr 2026
Published online: 12 Aug 2026 *

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