Title: The impact of Reddit user sentiment on bitcoin returns: checking the Reddit phenomenon existence with RedditSI

Authors: Valeriia Baklanova

Addresses: HSE University, 11 Pokrovsky Bulvar, Moscow, 109028, Russia

Abstract: In recent years, the bitcoin market has witnessed exponential growth in investor activity, coupled with a heightened influence of investor sentiment on BTC market dynamics. This study explores the role of Reddit in shaping user sentiments and influencing investment decisions within the bitcoin market. The research introduces Reddit sentiment index (RedditSI) as a tool to measure sentiment among Reddit users. The index was constructed based on comments from top discussions in the bitcoin-related subreddits that were classified by tonality using the NLP model Flair. The study employs statistical analysis methods, including correlation, cointegration, and causality, as well as event study analysis to examine the relationship between RedditSI and BTC market performance. The results indicate a significant impact of RedditSI on bitcoin returns, revealing both short-term and long-term relationships between them. Notably, the RedditSI outperforms the well-known crypto fear and greed index, underscoring its significance in gauging market mood and influencing trading patterns.

Keywords: bitcoin; BTC; investor sentiment; natural language processing; NLP; time series analysis; event study; behavioural finance.

DOI: 10.1504/GBER.2026.155491

Global Business and Economics Review, 2026 Vol.35 No.2, pp.119 - 155

Received: 15 May 2024
Accepted: 13 Sep 2024
Published online: 04 Aug 2026 *

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