Article: Analysis of the environmental impact across key sectors in ASEAN'S top developing economies, a panel ARDL-PMG methodology Journal: World Review of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development (WRSTSD) 2026 Vol.20 No.3 pp.249 - 276 Abstract: This study assesses the environmental sustainability of five ASEAN countries - Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia - using annual data from 1990 to 2022. Employing the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL-PMG) model, we examine the short and long-term impacts of key economic sectors - agriculture, fossil fuel energy use, tourism, and transportation - on the ecological footprint. Robustness is ensured through cointegration and Granger causality tests. The results reveal that, in the long run, agricultural production, fossil fuel consumption, tourism, and transportation significantly increase the ecological footprint at the 1% level. Notably, food exports and international tourism exert substantial environmental pressures. However, short-term effects vary across countries, with agricultural production and transportation showing insignificant impacts on CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB> emissions in some cases. Causality analysis confirms unidirectional relationships from agricultural development - particularly food exports and food production indices - to ecological degradation. These findings underscore the intricate links between economic growth and environmental sustainability and provide critical policy implications for advancing green development in Southeast Asia. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Analysis of the environmental impact across key sectors in ASEAN'S top developing economies, a panel ARDL-PMG methodology

Authors: Fei Fan; Ha Van Trung

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China ' School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

Abstract: This study assesses the environmental sustainability of five ASEAN countries - Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia - using annual data from 1990 to 2022. Employing the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL-PMG) model, we examine the short and long-term impacts of key economic sectors - agriculture, fossil fuel energy use, tourism, and transportation - on the ecological footprint. Robustness is ensured through cointegration and Granger causality tests. The results reveal that, in the long run, agricultural production, fossil fuel consumption, tourism, and transportation significantly increase the ecological footprint at the 1% level. Notably, food exports and international tourism exert substantial environmental pressures. However, short-term effects vary across countries, with agricultural production and transportation showing insignificant impacts on CO₂ emissions in some cases. Causality analysis confirms unidirectional relationships from agricultural development - particularly food exports and food production indices - to ecological degradation. These findings underscore the intricate links between economic growth and environmental sustainability and provide critical policy implications for advancing green development in Southeast Asia.

Keywords: ASEAN countries; ecological footprint; EF; agricultural production; panel PMG-ARDL; ASEAN economics; ASEAN tourism.

DOI: 10.1504/WRSTSD.2026.155341

World Review of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, 2026 Vol.20 No.3, pp.249 - 276

Received: 02 Nov 2024
Accepted: 11 Aug 2025
Published online: 30 Jul 2026 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article

Title: Analysis of the environmental impact across key sectors in ASEAN'S top developing economies, a panel ARDL-PMG methodology

Keep up-to-date