Title: Impact of climate change on the potential for extreme rainfall events in the Lesser Sunda Islands - Indonesia

Authors: Aura Syakira Fidinina; Alvin Pratama; Amalia Nurlatifah

Addresses: Department of Atmospheric and Planetary Science, Faculty of Science, Institut Teknologi Sumatera, South Lampung, Indonesia ' Department of Atmospheric and Planetary Science, Faculty of Science, Institut Teknologi Sumatera, South Lampung, Indonesia ' Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK; Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, National Research and Innovation Agency, Bandung, Indonesia

Abstract: Climate change strongly influences extreme rainfall in tropical regions, including the Lesser Sunda Islands. This study examines historical conditions (1984-2014) and future projections (2015-2060) using CHIRPS data and the ACCESS-ESM1.5 model (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6), corrected with quantile mapping. Post-correction evaluation indicates improved performance, with correlation above 0.7 and reduced RMSE. Extreme rainfall was assessed using ETCCDI indices (RX1day, R50mm, and CDD) and SPI-3 for seasonal drought. Projections show increases RX1day and R50mm under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, while CDD increases across all scenarios, reaching ~180 days under SSP3-7.0. SPI ≤ -1.0 also increases, indicating more frequent and widespread droughts in the future.

Keywords: extreme rainfall; ETCCDI; Lesser Sunda Island; NEX-GDDP-CMIP6; quantile mapping; QM; SPI-3; Indonesia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2026.155098

International Journal of Global Warming, 2026 Vol.39 No.3, pp.298 - 328

Received: 19 Sep 2025
Accepted: 30 Jan 2026
Published online: 27 Jul 2026 *

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