Title: Heterogeneous dynamic relationship between urban expansion and carbon emissions in China

Authors: Xiaoqiang Zheng; Mengyue Li

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China ' School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China

Abstract: Urban expansion increases carbon emissions, but its dynamic relationship under heterogeneous conditions remains unclear. This study discusses the drivers and decoupling paths of carbon emissions in cities with different expansion types. The analysis indicates that the contribution levels and offset effects of the driving factors explained the carbon emission differences among city types, with faster urban expansion amplifying these effects. The level of economic development was the primary factor that inhibited the decoupling across different city types, while output carbon intensity and per capita GDP were the key drivers. These insights support tailored low-carbon strategies and collaborative mitigation efforts.

Keywords: urban expansion; carbon emissions; Theil Index; decomposition analysis; decoupling analysis; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2026.155092

International Journal of Global Warming, 2026 Vol.39 No.3, pp.239 - 255

Received: 10 Aug 2025
Accepted: 23 Jan 2026
Published online: 27 Jul 2026 *

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