Title: Evaluation of renewable energy investment under the mixed policy scenario of carbon trading and green certificate trading

Authors: Qian Cao

Addresses: School of Accounting, Shaanxi Technical College of Finance and Economics, Xianyang, Shaanxi, 712000, China

Abstract: Against the backdrop of China's 'dual carbon' goals and energy transition, renewable energy (RE) investment is crucial. This study examines the combined effect of China's carbon trading (CT) and green certificate trading (GCT) policies on promoting RE investment. Using utility analysis, cost-benefit assessment, and sensitivity analysis, it quantifies economic and environmental benefits and tests policy flexibility. Granger causality tests and Pearson correlation coefficients identify time-lagged impacts and variable relationships. Results show policy incentives, market demand, and technological innovation significantly boost RE generation, while CT and GCT prices directly affect investment returns. In one regional case, post-policy economic benefits rose from 3.5 to 4.1 million yuan, while CO₂ emissions dropped from 530,000 to 400,000 tons. Granger tests confirmed CT and GCT prices significantly influence RE output with a time lag. The study concludes that policy incentives and market mechanisms are essential for advancing renewable energy.

Keywords: carbon trading; mixed policies; renewable energy; investment effects; GCT; green certificate trading.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2026.154792

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, 2026 Vol.26 No.2, pp.200 - 218

Received: 08 Feb 2025
Accepted: 05 Sep 2025
Published online: 14 Jul 2026 *

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