Title: Vietnam's cashew export: a stochastic gravity analysis

Authors: Thuy Anh Tu; Tien Dung Dinh; Thi Mai Phuong Chu

Addresses: Faculty of International Economics, Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam ' Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank), Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam ' Faculty of International Economics, Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam

Abstract: This study aims to estimate the efficiency and potential of Vietnamese cashew exports to 40 partners using stochastic gravity analysis from 2006 to 2022. The importer's GDP, geographical distance, and the official exchange rate are found to have a positive effect on exports. However, Vietnamese cashew exports have not reached their full potential. The average efficiency of its 10 largest importers in 2022 was 48.5%, while the overall average for the period was only 31.9%. Additionally, when examining factors affecting export efficiency, it is shown that investment freedom, trade freedom, and financial freedom, along with several trade agreements, have positive impacts on Vietnamese cashew export efficiency.

Keywords: cashew export; stochastic gravity model; export potential; export efficiency; trade agreement; agriculture.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2026.154205

International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2026 Vol.22 No.2, pp.185 - 201

Received: 07 Aug 2024
Accepted: 11 Jul 2025
Published online: 16 Jun 2026 *

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