Title: Impact of climate change on soil loss in small catchments in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes

Authors: Ruan Veloso Sousa Sobral; Ana Karla Rodrigues Lobato; Amanda de Cássia Lobato Soares; Leonardo Melo de Mendonça; Josias da Silva Cruz; Claudio Blanco

Addresses: School Environmental and Sanitary Engineering, FAESA/ITEC/UFPA, Rua Augusto Correa, 01, Belém-PA, 66075-110, Brazil ' School Environmental and Sanitary Engineering, FAESA/ITEC/UFPA, Rua Augusto Correa, 01, Belém-PA, 66075-110, Brazil ' Civil Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEC/ITEC/UFPA, Rua Augusto Correa, 01, Belém-PA, 66075-110, Brazil ' Civil Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEC/ITEC/UFPA, Rua Augusto Correa, 01, Belém-PA, 66075-110, Brazil ' Civil Engineering Graduate Program, PPGEC/ITEC/UFPA, Rua Augusto Correa, 01, Belém-PA, 66075-110, Brazil ' School Environmental and Sanitary Engineering, FAESA/ITEC/UFPA, Rua Augusto Correa, 01, Belém-PA, 66075-110, Brazil

Abstract: Soil loss was estimate in two small catchments, using observed and future rainfall data simulated by NASA Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) climate models, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Soil loss was determined for the SSP2-4.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. In the Igarapé da Prata small catchment (Amazon), the soil loss for the SSP2-4.5 increased by 3.8% (2025-2050), 2.8% (2051-2075) and 1.9% (2076-2099). In the case of SSP5-8.5, soil loss in the period 2025-2050 was approximately 0, while in the subsequent periods there was a reduction of 8% and 7.5%. In the Piranhas River catchment (Cerrado), soil loss reduced in both scenarios and in the same periods. Therefore, in the Amazon small catchment, land use management strategies are necessary and in the Cerrado small catchment, current agricultural management must be maintained to avoid an increase in soil loss in the future.

Keywords: USLE; NEX-GDDP; CMIP6; erosivity.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2026.154038

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2026 Vol.21 No.4, pp.417 - 436

Received: 28 Mar 2024
Accepted: 29 Apr 2025
Published online: 10 Jun 2026 *

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