Title: Does the monetarist view on inflation still hold for Nigeria?

Authors: Abdulrafiu O. Olaitan; Mohammed Musa Tumala; Olusola Osigbenga Osifodunrin; Idowu Peters; Baba Nmadu Yaaba

Addresses: Department of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, 900211, Nigeria ' Department of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, 900211, Nigeria ' Department of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, 900211, Nigeria ' Department of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, 900211, Nigeria ' Department of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, 900211, Nigeria

Abstract: The increasing complexity of inflation dynamics requires a thorough understanding of the underlying causes and their evolution over time; hence, the need for this study. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was applied to Nigerian data spanning the period 1986Q1 to 2021Q4 to determine if the monetarist view of inflation still holds in Nigeria. The study finds that, although other views on inflation, such as the open economy view, are operational, the monetarist idea about inflation is still relevant. Prominent policy implications that emerged from the point of view of the monetary authorities are the continuous relevance of the Central Bank in taming inflation, considering its ability to control the money supply. The study advises the central bank to be wary of expansionary monetary policy measures, even if the fundamentals dictate so, considering the downward sticky nature of inflation in Nigeria.

Keywords: inflation; money supply; monetary policy; ARDL; autoregressive distributed lag; Nigeria.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMEF.2026.153836

International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 2026 Vol.19 No.1, pp.1 - 21

Accepted: 21 Dec 2024
Published online: 27 May 2026 *

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