Title: Complex interactions between economic and social variables and municipal solid waste generation in Mexico: insights from a causation analysis

Authors: Pablo Emilio Escamilla-García; Ángel Eustorgio Rivera-González; Gibrán Rivera-González; Luis Canek Ángeles-Tovar

Addresses: Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Ingeniería y Ciencias Sociales y Administrativas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Av. Té 950, Granjas México, Iztacalco, 08400 Ciudad de México, CDMX, México ' Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Ingeniería y Ciencias Sociales y Administrativas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Av. Té 950, Granjas México, Iztacalco, 08400 Ciudad de México, CDMX, México ' Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Ingeniería y Ciencias Sociales y Administrativas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Av. Té 950, Granjas México, Iztacalco, 08400 Ciudad de México, CDMX, México ' Unidad Profesional Interdisciplinaria de Ingeniería y Ciencias Sociales y Administrativas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Av. Té 950, Granjas México, Iztacalco, 08400 Ciudad de México, CDMX, México

Abstract: This study investigates the causal relationships between municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and selected economic and social indicators in Mexico, including gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, unemployment rate, and educational levels. To conduct the analysis, vector autoregression (VAR), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and Granger causality techniques were considered. Part of the main findings showed the coefficient for GDP was positive but not statistically significant, suggesting that while GDP may influence MSW generation, and the relationship is not as straightforward as expected. Similarly, the coefficient for inflation was negative but insignificant, indicating that inflation's impact on MSW generation is minimal or indirect. For the unemployment rate, the coefficient was negative but not significant, implying that the unemployment rate might not directly influence waste generation. This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers aiming to develop targeted strategies that address the economic and educational determinants of waste generation.

Keywords: municipal solid waste; MSW; generation; gross domestic product; GDP; economic variables; social variables; social indicators; causation analysis; vector autoregression; VAR; autoregressive distributed lag; ARDL; Mexico.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEWM.2026.152425

International Journal of Environment and Waste Management, 2026 Vol.39 No.3, pp.239 - 258

Received: 05 Sep 2024
Accepted: 16 Jan 2025
Published online: 19 Mar 2026 *

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