Title: Seismic safety evaluation of dams using a cloud model

Authors: Alabhya Sharma; Shiv Dayal Bharti; Mahendra Kumar Shrimali; Tushar Kanti Datta

Addresses: National Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Management, Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India ' National Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Management, Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India ' National Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Management, Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India ' National Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Management, Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

Abstract: For the preliminary estimate of the seismic safety of the dam, expert opinions are often relied upon. However, expert opinions, when expressed linguistically, are associated with uncertainty and fuzziness. To address this inadequacy, cloud models have been utilised in numerous studies. In the present investigation, a cloud model is employed to predict the seismic safety of a concrete gravity dam. Experts evaluate seismic safety factors of dams, focusing on seismic damage potential, hazard and structural strength. Each factor has key sub-indicators rated on a five-point scale. Through qualitative-to-quantitative conversion, cloud points are generated for analysis. The coefficient of variation method identifies sub-indicator influences on each factor. Comparing these cloud models to standard ones visually depicts dam safety. Illustrated with Koyna dam, this approach reveals its seismic safety below the normal range, showcasing the effectiveness of the three indicators in assessing dam safety.

Keywords: cloud model; dam seismic safety assessment; Koyna dams; a correlation coefficient method; risk assessment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRS.2025.149313

International Journal of Reliability and Safety, 2025 Vol.19 No.4, pp.307 - 324

Received: 27 Apr 2024
Accepted: 10 Jan 2025
Published online: 24 Oct 2025 *

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