Title: Behaviour of agricultural commodity freight rates and structural breaks

Authors: Andréa Leda Ramos de Oliveira; Thayane Caroline Oliveira da Conceição; Matheus Melo de Souza; Tatiana de Oliveira Russo

Addresses: Agroindustrial Logistics and Commercialization Laboratory (LOGICOM), Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil ' Agroindustrial Logistics and Commercialization Laboratory (LOGICOM), Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil ' Agroindustrial Logistics and Commercialization Laboratory (LOGICOM), Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil ' Agroindustrial Logistics and Commercialization Laboratory (LOGICOM), Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil

Abstract: Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of agricultural commodities, while facing logistical weaknesses and a heavy reliance on road transport. This study examines abrupt variations in a time series of soybean and maize road freight rates in Brazil using the Bai and Perron methodology to identify structural breaks. The analytical approach employed a dynamic programming algorithm to locate significant breaks. The results highlight that these breaks were outcomes of economic, political, and market events, such as the lorry drivers' strike in 2018, the promulgation of Law 13,703, the completion of the paving of highway BR-163, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the increase in grain exports, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the spike in oil and diesel prices, all of which directly impacted road freight rates and the transport industry. These conclusions underscore the necessity of assessing the agricultural commodity supply chain in uncertain settings to support decision-making and impact mitigation.

Keywords: time series; political-economic impacts; volatility; agro-industrial chain.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2025.148488

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2025 Vol.21 No.2, pp.239 - 260

Received: 12 Sep 2023
Accepted: 02 Sep 2024
Published online: 08 Sep 2025 *

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