Title: Anomaly levels of factors affecting the estimated price of a second-hand ship

Authors: Gülden Öner; Burak Göksu; Ersin Açıkgöz

Addresses: Department of Maritime Business Administration, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye ' Department of Marine Engineering, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye ' Department of Maritime Business Administration, Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Türkiye

Abstract: This is a study to determine the variables, and their effects related to second-hand ship prices and predict the prices of ships with the anomalies and make suggestions to their reasons on information acquired from the sales of 1,283 pre-owned Panamax-class vessels between 2010 and 2022. The regression model was used as a pre-selection method to specify the variables associated with the prices of second-hand ships, and the artificial neural networks model was used to predict the prices of these ships and to determine the anomalies related to the price estimation. As a result, there is a significant relationship between the age of the ships, tonnage, LIBOR interest rates, crude oil prices, freight rates and second-hand prices. In ships older than 20 years and between 65,000-75,000 DWT, very low and high freight rates, low crude oil prices and high interest rates, anomaly prices are high.

Keywords: artificial neural network; ANN; Panamax bulk carriers; price anomalies; regression; second-hand ship.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2025.148485

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2025 Vol.21 No.2, pp.153 - 185

Received: 20 Jun 2023
Accepted: 03 Sep 2024
Published online: 08 Sep 2025 *

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