Title: Russia-Ukraine conflict disturbance of global supply chain

Authors: Sarfraz Hussain; Kiran Shrimant Kakade; S. Saravanakumar; Kamakshi Mehta

Addresses: Government Graduate College, Sahiwal, Punjab, Pakistan ' Faculty of Management, Symbiosis Institute of Management Studies (SIMS), Symbiosis International Deemed University (SIU), Pune, Maharashtra, India ' Department of Civil Engineering, S.A. Engineering College, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India ' TAPMI School of Business, Manipal University Jaipur, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

Abstract: Russia and Ukraine, the unpredictability and volatility of global economic policies have been significantly ratcheted up to a much higher level. The chance that global economic policies would fall short of their goals as a result of this development has significantly risen. Within the context of economic globalisation, the primary question that we investigate is whether or not the unpredictability of global economic policy will have distinct effects on the manufacturing sectors of the world's three most significant economies: China, the USA and the European Union. For the purpose of analysing the effect that Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) has on manufacturing between the years of March 2008 and March 2023, this study employs a model that is known as a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model (TVP-VAR).

Keywords: global economic policy uncertainty; manufacturing; PMI; TVP-VAR.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDIPE.2025.147276

International Journal of Diplomacy and Economy, 2025 Vol.11 No.3, pp.264 - 275

Received: 19 Nov 2023
Accepted: 04 Jan 2024
Published online: 14 Jul 2025 *

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