Forecast of air traffic's CO₂ and NO_x emissions until 2030
by Martin Schaefer
International Journal of Aviation Management (IJAM), Vol. 2, No. 3/4, 2015

Abstract: This article presents both methodology and results of an emissions forecast for air traffic until the year 2030. Aircraft emissions include carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitric oxides (NO_x), which influence atmospheric chemistry and may contribute to global warming. The forecast is based on a simulation model, which predicts future air traffic and its emissions using flight schedules for a base year in combination with traffic growth assumptions and a fleet rollover simulation. Aircraft performance software is applied to estimate fuel consumption, CO₂ and NO_x emissions. Models from the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) are used to simulate today's fleet of aircraft, supplemented by additional models representing aircraft of the near future. Forecast results include the number of flights, passenger-kilometres, fuel consumption, CO₂ and NO_x emissions for air traffic from 2010 until 2030.

Online publication date: Sun, 11-Oct-2015

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