International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (11 papers in press)
by Ralf Hedel, George Boustras, Ilias Gkotsis, Ioanna Vasiliadou, Paul Rathke
Abstract: In the course of emerging threats of the 21st century, this paper aims at supporting the further development of the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP), in particular the directive 2008/114/EC on designation and protection of European Critical Infrastructures. It provides a comprehensive review of this legal framework by compiling experiences of practitioners collected during the European Surface Transport Operator (EUSTO) forum and a series of semi-structured expert interviews.
The answers of the EUSTO participants assess how the single elements and approaches of the EPCIP have affected their work. Furthermore, the review identifies the challenges that need to be addressed in the future. The third part of this paper provides a guideline on setting up an Operator Security Plan, which is specifically required by the directive. The template could initiate European harmonisation of security plans, contributing to the improvement of EPCIP.
Keywords: critical infrastructures;critical infrastructures protection;transport infrastructures;surface transport;European Union;European Programme of Critical Infrastructure Protection;directive 2008/114/EC;Operator Security Plan;terroristic threats;criminal threats;resilience;practitioners.
Resilience Capacities Assessment for Critical Infrastructures Disruption: the READ Framework (Part 1)
by Igor Kozine, Boris Petrenj, Paolo Trucco
Abstract: We suggest an approach to assessing Critical Infrastructure Resilience (CIR) as a step towards informed resource allocation and operation when planning to cope with CI disruptions in the context of Emergency Management or multi-stakeholder planning. The approach is capabilities-based, where a capability is defined as a combination of assets, resources and routines specifically arranged to accomplish a critical task and assure a key objective. The capabilities (intra- and inter-institutional) are grouped into clusters according to the resilience phase (preventive, absorptive, adaptive and restorative) where they are invoked; and according to the system type (technical, operational, social, and economic) which they belong to. An overall resilience capability building cycle completes the framework, enabling a systematic implementation of relevant capabilities and making gap analysis with regard to resilience deficits. A simplified test case exemplifying the use of the framework in the context of a regional public-private collaboration for CIR is provided.
Keywords: Critical Infrastructure; Resilience Assessment; Capability-Based Planning; Emergency Management; Public-Private Partnership; Gap Analysis.
Resilience Capacities Assessment for Critical Infrastructures Disruption: READ pilot applications (Part 2)
by Paolo Trucco, Boris Petrenj, Carmelo Di Mauro
Abstract: The study aims at supporting the stakeholders involved in the Emergency Management (EM) activities to tackle the challenges related to scenarios involving interdependent Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems, by building resilience. The primary objective of implementing the capability-based approach is to enable and foster collaborative EM in the context of Public-Private Collaborations for CI resilience.rnThe READ framework and related tool have been tested to support stakeholders resilience capacities assessment with respect to cross-border disruptions and thus identify the main areas where progress is needed. Two pilot cases were used to validate the approach and demonstrate its applicability in the context of regional Public-Private Collaborations for Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience with different degree of development and level of maturity, namely Basque Country (Spain) and Lombardy Region (Italy).
The practitioners feedback from both application cases confirmed the usefulness of such approach and helped to identify areas for future research and improvement.
Keywords: Critical Infrastructure; Resilience Assessment; Capability-Based Planning; Public-Private Partnership; Gap Analysis.
ESTIMATING THE DETERMINANTS OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN INFRASTRUCTURE: THE CASE OF INDIA
by Varun Chotia
Abstract: PublicPrivate Partnership (PPP) mode of financing is quickly becoming the favored way to invest and fund infrastructure in India. This paper focuses exclusively on the PPP mode of infrastructure financing. Based on the literature review, five major types of factors Government, Political, Market, Macroeconomic and Institutional Quality, were identified as the ones which could possibly determine a PPP. Using these major factors, we have aimed to examine and estimate the significant determinants of attracting any PPP in India. The empirical findings indicate that for India a higher Cash deficit with huge government debt tends to attract more number of PPP projects. The study also suggests that Political factors play a crucial role for the private sector in terms of making decisions regarding involvement of the PPP mode for financing Infrastructure. Finally, Institutional quality cannot be ignored and it also holds its significance in determining PPP projects in India. A corruption free India is more likely to attract more private investment through a higher number of PPP projects. While examining the investment aspect for PPPs, we conclude that soft governmental constraints, market conditions and effectiveness of government prove to be decisive in terms of impacting the PPP investment.
Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP); Government factors; Political factors; Market factors; Institutional quality factors.
Developing a Fault Prediction Model for Wired Copper Networks under Precipitation
by Mahboobeh Moghaddam, Hamid Shobeiri Nejad, Mahmoud Mesbah, Mark Hickman
Abstract: Telecommunication companies who face challenges of aging infrastructure need to balance the cost of maintenance with that of providing their services within a service level guarantee. For Telstra, the largest telecommunication company in Australia, this balance is achieved by adopting a passive approach to handle the faults that occur in the network. Rather than actively preventing faults, technicians are assigned to fix faults in a timely manner. However, to achieve an efficient and timely technician assignment, a prediction model is needed to advise planners of the potential number of faults in the network. From statistical analysis, we have developed a fault prediction model by investigating 29 months of data of faults. Our prediction model shows that rain has a significant impact on the number of faults in many areas across Australia, which can be the result of the aging infrastructure.
Keywords: Ageing Infrastructure; Network Management; Fault Prediction Model; Statistical Analysis.
POTENTIAL FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE URBAN INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA
by Carunia Mulya Firdausy
Abstract: The development of urban infrastructures is a must toward Indonesias sustainable development. The reason is simply because rapid urbanization exerts huge pressures on basic services and infrastructures in urban areas including education, public health, water supply, housing, energy and transportation. However, the government funds to support urban infrastructures are far from adequate. Of the total budget needed to finance infrastructures in the period 2015-2019, only about 41.3 percent could be provided by the Central and Regional governments. This research paper aims to examine other potential financial instruments to sustain urban infrastructural development. Throughout this study, the sources of data are from secondary sources published by the National Development Planning Board (BAPPENAS), the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Public Works, Bank of Indonesia, PT. Artistika Prasetia, and other relevant sources. The qualitative survey was also undertaken especially by undertaking interviews with the resource persons from the above ministries. The study confirms that the role of the private business entities is unavoidable in order to sustain urban infrastructural development. Apart from the available financial instruments that have been implemented to develop urban infrastructures, other financial instruments especially private bonds in the forms of corporate bonds, project bonds and Sharia bonds (Sukuk) instruments are potential to be taken into considerations. However, to make these private bonds is well-implemented, the government needs to provide regulations, incentives and guarantees to attract the private business entities and community. Thus, much remain to be done by the government.rnrn
Keywords: Urban infrastructural financing; budget deficit; Public-private partnership (PPP); corporate bonds; Project Bonds. Sharia Bonds (Sukuk).rn rn.
Design and Analysis of Wave Energy Buoy Integrated With Seaweed Farming
by Kong Fah Tee, Sulaiman Olanrewaju
Abstract: Farming facilities in offshore face natural disasters caused by tropical storms. Without reliable design of mooring system, the wave load on the structure can easily damage it during a natural disaster event that could lead to unacceptable economic loss. Mooring failure represents the most common reason for the loss of ocean devices due to environmental load action and inappropriate design; because the developers concentrate much of their efforts on optimizing the efficiency of the device and not enough attention is paid to the design of the mooring system. Thus, ensuring the security and safe deployment of very large floating structure system is very important issue for industrial marine farm and ocean energy activities. This paper presents design and analysis of wave energy integrated with seaweed farming system. The static model will predict the tension and tilt at each mooring component, including the anchor, for which the safe mass will be evaluated in terms of the vertical and horizontal tensions. Predictions can be saved to facilitate mooring motion correction. Time dependent currents can be entered to predict the dynamic response of the mooring.
Keywords: wave energy; seaweed farming; mooring failure; environmental loads; buoy.
Business Models and the Private Provision of Public Infrastructure: Leaving no Stone Unturned
by Norayr Badasyan, Hans Wilhelm Alfen
Abstract: The present paper introduces a new approach for the calculation of the Economic Internal Rate of Return for the projects in the road sector aiming to consider the link between the chosen business models/revenue mechanisms and the economic output. The novelty of the current approach is that the economic output of the road projects is considered based on both design options of the roads and the chosen organizational model for the private investments. The current approach makes a strong fundament for the decision makers to masterplan an economically viable road projects developed under private investment models.
Keywords: Infrastructure Economics; Infrastructure Finance; PPP; Road.
Intelligent Decision System for Responsive Crisis Management
by Mohammed Khouj, Abdullah Alsubaie, Khaled Alutaibi, Haitham Magdi Ahmed, Sarbjit Sarkaria, José R. Marti
Abstract: Disaster mitigation of severe catastrophic events depend heavily on effective decisions that are made by officials. The horrific consequences on the national economy and security caused by the Haiti earthquake 2010, Great Eastern earthquake in Japan 2011, Hurricane Sandy in USA 2012 and Typhoon Haiyan in Philippines 2013 are disastrous events in human history. These events reveal the need for efficient planning and coordination at every level of the crisis response management process and particularly at the decision making level. The goal of disaster management is to make decisions that properly allocate and distribute the scarce resources produced by the available interconnected-critical infrastructures (CIs). This study explores the effectiveness of using machine learning as an intelligent decision making mechanism to assist in the reallocation of the available resources following an infrastructure disruption such as an earthquake. The novelty of this work is based upon the application of Monte Carlo (MC) based policy estimation in Reinforcement Learning (RL) to mount up experience from a massive number of simulations. This method in conjunction with an optimized set of RL parameters will help the RL agent to explore and exploit those trajectories that lead to an optimum result in a reasonable time. When applied within the architecture of our platform, MC based policy estimation was observed to achieve the same optimized result in about half the time needed by the Temporal Difference (TD) based approach. The goal in this case is to maximize the number of discharged patients (DPs) from emergency units. This paper shows that a learning agent using MC estimation policy, through interactions with an environment of simulated disastrous scenarios (i2Sim-infrastrucuture interdependency simulator) is capable of making informed decisions for complex systems in a timely manner.
Keywords: artificial intelligence; critical infrastructure; disaster management; i2Sim real-time simulator; reinforcement-learning agent; responsive crisis management; Monte-Carlo policy estimation.
Modelling critical infrastructure network interdependencies and failure
by Jiwei Lin, Kang Tai, Robert, Lee Kong Tiong, Mong Soon Sim
Abstract: Critical infrastructures are fundamental systems that are interconnected with one another, and their interdependencies need to be modelled in order to analyse any possible vulnerabilities that exist in these infrastructure networks. In this work, a Leontief input-output model of the critical infrastructure systems and two physical critical infrastructure networks are developed. The input-output model serves to evaluate the interdependencies among the various infrastructure systems, while the physical infrastructure network describes the linkages within the physical infrastructure. An interdependency matrix is formulated to quantify the interdependencies among the critical infrastructure model. Elementary networks of the telecommunication infrastructure and electricity grid of Singapore are constructed and integrated into the infrastructure interdependencies model. This study examines the overall impact of any failures in the telecommunication infrastructure or electricity grid within the input-output interdependencies model systematically so to evaluate the worst case scenarios based on the impact caused by one or more points of failure in the physical infrastructure. This enables the identification of the corresponding most critical/vulnerable points and failure combinations. The study aims to create a general framework for economic impact studies that can be used in any country with a national I/O table and a network structure of the critical infrastructure of concern.
Keywords: Critical infrastructures; interdependency modelling; network analysis simulation; cascading failures; impact; worst case scenario.
Project Planning and Monitoring Analysis for Sustainable Environment and Power Infrastructure Project Development in Lagos State, Nigeria
by Ibikunle Ogundari, Funso Otuyemi
Abstract: This study examined the project planning and control parameters for a Public-Private Partnership sustainable environment and power (SEP) critical infrastructure project (Waste-to-Energy Initiative) in Lagos State, Nigeria, taking into cognisance the States critical infrastructure planning limitations, and the projects role as model for Nigerias Federal and State Governments. State-approved project time and costs were 15 months and US$ 6 million dollars respectively. Techno-economic and environmental conversion factors as well as project financial and work schedule data were obtained through literature, questionnaire and site inspection. Project assessment and Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology were used. The results showed annual waste-to-energy generation potentials of 2.37 ~ 2.85 TWh for electricity and 4.75 TWh for district heating, electricity revenue of US$ 187.93 ~ 226.0 million, estimated cost at completion of $7.31 Million, and estimated completion time of 17 months. The study concluded that in spite of the project being completed over budget and behind schedule, the SEP critical infrastructure project was viable and a suitable template for waste management in Nigeria.
Keywords: sustainable environment initiatives; power infrastructure; critical infrastructure; earned value management (EVM); Lagos; project planning and management; estimated completion time; Estimate at Completion; Cost Performance Index; project Schedule Variance.