Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management   »   2018 Vol.21, No.1/2



Title: Quantitative examples of safety assessment using logical-probabilistic methods


Authors: Igor A. Ryabinin; Alexander V. Strukov


N.G. Kuznetsov Naval Academy, Ushakovskaya naberezhnaya, 17/1, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia
JSC 'Specialized Engineering Company SEVZAPMONTAGEAUTOMATICA', (JSC SPIK SZMA), St.Petersburg, Russia


Abstract: The article presents examples of solving the tasks of analysis of safety of complex technical systems by using logical-probabilistic methods (LPM). LPM are characterised by sufficient visualisation and simplicity of formalisation of the hazardous state of the object in the form of the shortest paths of hazardous state or hazardous state scenario. Parametric representation of logical functions (Boolean sum and products of initiating events and initiating conditions) is carried out using the methods of orthogonalisation. Determination of individual and total contribution of events in probability of realisation of a dangerous condition can allow you to plan the activities to ensure the safety state of the object. In this article the examples are being solved with the use of ARBITR software.


Keywords: dangerous state; the shortest path of the dangerous state; an initiating event; an initiating condition; risk assessment; functional integrity schemes; FIS.


DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2018.090253


Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management, 2018 Vol.21, No.1/2, pp.4 - 20


Available online: 05 Mar 2018



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