Title: What works? An ANFIS-based policy evaluation framework for electric vehicle technology development
Authors: Fatih M. Özel; Huw Davies; Peter Wells
OECON Products and Services GmbH, Hermann-Blenk-Straße 22, 38108 Brunswick, Germany
Coventry University Centre for Mobility and Transport, Coventry University, Priory Street, CV1 5FB, Coventry, UK
Centre for Automotive Industry Research, Cardiff University, B45, Aberconway Building, CF10 3AT, Cardiff, UK
Abstract: The application of socio-technical transitions analysis into realms such as sustainable mobility requires understanding the efficacy of policy measures ex ante. Electrification of the vehicle drivetrain is one possible solution to achieve carbon emission targets. National governments are developing policy measures to encourage electric vehicle (EV) technologies. To evaluate policy measures, a framework based on "adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system" (ANFIS) was developed. For data generation, EV innovation policies of EU, USA, Japan, Germany, France and UK were analysed and compared with the patent filings in those regions. The training and validation of the framework shows that the model is able to predict the development of EV technologies. The model is subsequently applied to Austria to evaluate three proposed policy scenarios. This paper concludes that the developed framework might play a significant role for assisting EV innovation policy-making by enabling ex-ante assessment of the effects of different policy-mixes on the technical change.
Keywords: battery electric vehicles; BEVs; policy evaluation; socio-technical transitions; ANFIS-based modelling; Austria; sustainable mobility.
Int. J. of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles, 2017 Vol.9, No.3, pp.222 - 252
Submission date: 27 Mar 2017
Date of acceptance: 10 Jun 2017
Available online: 18 Oct 2017