Title: Exploring possible impacts of sea level rise: the case of Izmir, Turkey

Authors: Hifzi Aksoy; Hande Demirel; Dursun Zafer Seker

Addresses: Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey ' Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey ' Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: According to the global sea level rise (SLR) models, among other metropolitan areas in the world, Ìzmir will be one of the riskiest cities that will be affected by the optimistic sea level rise. In order to assess the degree of magnitude of such possible effects in Ìzmir, various scenarios, being 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 metres, were tested and inundation risk maps were produced. According to the worst-case scenario, almost 35% of population was under the risk of flooding, where 24.49% of the artificial surfaces were inundated together with 16.54% of agricultural areas. Possible inundation of motorways in the area could cost approximately 143 million €. The spatial information based framework and quantitative assessment methodologies outlined in this paper could be employed to make an inventory of the assets in the vulnerable zones, where results could contribute to prioritise further mitigation and adaptation activities.

Keywords: global warming; sea level rise; SLR; geographical information science; vulnerability; Turkey.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2017.087207

International Journal of Global Warming, 2017 Vol.13 No.3/4, pp.398 - 410

Received: 05 Sep 2015
Accepted: 11 Jan 2016
Published online: 11 Oct 2017 *

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